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TD 5 Likely To Become Ernesto, Could Affect Midweek Weather 2 hours, 57 minutes ago
Tropical Depression 5 formed near the Windward Islands on Thursday -- and meteorologists said it could become Tropical Storm Ernesto before Friday night.
Aircraft reconnaissance found Thursday afternoon that a closed circulation formed in association with the strong tropical wave moving though the Windward Islands.
At 11 a.m., the depression still had not reached tropical strength. It had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and was centered 1,256 miles southeast of Miami. The depression is expected to move west or west-northwest and it is likely intensify into the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is not well-organized or symetrical, keeping it a depression reather than a a storm.
It is still too early to predict the path of the storm, and there is a possibility that wind shear that it will encounter in the southern Caribbean could keep it from strengthening or even rip it apart. But, if the shear stops being a factor, or if the storm is able to hold together, the National Hurricane Center thinks it could reach hurricane strength.
There are no watches or warning associated with Tropical Depression 5 at the moment, but that could change as the storm intensifies.
"Eagles may soar high, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines."
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I have no life
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It is hurricane season and they do crop up. Most die at sea. 
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"Eagles may soar high, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines."
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Where we sit in League City, which is midway between Houston and Galveston, we are in a Cat.4 storm surge evacuation area. Fortunately conditions right now are not favorable for rapid growth and it looks like the storms movement will be fast enough so we might not get that strong of a storm. Katrina and Rita were both plowing through the islands as hurricanes and Ernesto is not. We rode out Alicia in '83 in this house with just duct tape on the windows and did'nt leave for Rita last year. We got the boards cut for the windows (so at least those are ready) and were making the final preparations to leave while keeping tabs on the massive traffic jam of the evacuation. We decided to stay one more day while watching the storm track and with it tracking a bit more to the east with each advisory we deicided to board up some of the windows that would be facing the wind and stayed put. We are ready and we are going to wait until the last minute to leave if we need to.
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according to weather reports and other reports of storm activity, it turns out this WON't be a hurricane, but may be a heavy tropicaly storm... :s I mean I know bad is still bad but not a katrina or rita...
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Originally posted by m4gician:
according to weather reports and other reports of storm activity, it turns out this WON't be a hurricane, but may be a heavy tropicaly storm... :s I mean I know bad is still bad but not a katrina or rita...
The weather I am watching is saying that it will probably be a cat 3 next Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm strengthens in Caribbean By MICHAEL MELIA, Associated Press Writer
17 minutes ago
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico - Tropical Storm Ernesto strengthened over the Caribbean Saturday as it headed toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, threatening to become the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Ernesto, packing 50 mph winds, was projected to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday but it was too soon to predict whether it would hit the United States, said Michael Brennan, a meteorologist with the hurricane center in Miami.
"People should pay attention, especially people on the Gulf coast," Brennan said. "We're in the middle of hurricane season and it's a good time for people to update their hurricane plans."
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, which both were in the storm's path, issued hurricane watches, meaning severe conditions including winds of at least 74 mph were possible over the next 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings also were in effect for Jamaica and Haiti's southern coast.
Ernesto was on a course that would bring it over Jamaica by Sunday afternoon, dumping heavy showers. Fishermen were warned to return to shore and Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller met with disaster agencies to prepare.
Jamaica issued advisories by radio and television for residents in low-lying areas across the island to be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
"We are concerned about the flood risk to parishes that were affected in the past, so that is the major concern right now," said Nadine Newsome, a spokeswoman for the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.
At 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, Ernesto had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, with higher gusts. The fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season was centered 250 miles southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and 420 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
The storm was moving northwest at nearly 14 mph. It was expected to bring 3 to 4 inches of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic as it passed south of Hispaniola.
People were advised to complete their weather preparations on Saturday.
Jacky Kennett, who moved to the Cayman Islands with her family from Britain a year ago, was preparing for what could be her first hurricane.
"I went and put fuel in the car, got some money out of the bank, and stopped at the grocery store yesterday to stock up," said Kennett, 47. "I don't want to overreact or anything, but I am worried."
Fears that the storm could damage offshore energy facilities in the Gulf of Mexico sent oil and natural-gas prices higher. Oil producers operating in the Gulf said they were prepared to evacuate nonessential personnel if needed.
Max Mayfield, the National Hurricane Center director, said it was too early to say whether the storm would hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, which is still recovering from last year's Hurricane Katrina.
"It's too early to pinpoint one specific location but I think message is, especially to the folks that are in temporary housing, these 115,000 families mostly in the FEMA trailers, they need to watch this carefully," Mayfield told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "We've got some time. We don't want people to get too excited about this, but they certainly need to be watching it."
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Originally posted by TexasRealtor:
Originally posted by m4gician:
according to weather reports and other reports of storm activity, it turns out this WON't be a hurricane, but may be a heavy tropicaly storm... :s I mean I know bad is still bad but not a katrina or rita...
The weather I am watching is saying that it will probably be a cat 3 next Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico.
Indications are it will be a hurrricane, but I doubt it will be catastrophic. Prepare for evacuation & about 2 weeks without power (candles, lamps, flashlight, water, canned food, etc. that most people should have on hand already) & everybody will be fine.
I'm hoping that it will get sheared as it approaches the gulf & not strengthen too much.
Must be that jumbly-wumbly thing happening again.
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It's still way too early to say one way or the other. The probabilities on that position line after Tuesday fall to less than 10%, they're not above 50% confidence on their Sunday position. LOTS of stuff can change.
We'll have a better idea once it gets into the Gulf, about where that chart shows it'll be on Wednesday morning. Even then though, all it takes is a slight stall in the warm Gulf to turn a 3 to a 5 literally within hours.
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Originally posted by TourDeForce:
Indications are it will be a hurrricane, but I doubt it will be catastrophic.
Katrina hit New Orleans as only a cat 3.
"Eagles may soar high, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines."
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