Originally posted by Dan Nixon: Iraqis, while still greatful for our removing Sadam, are increasing against us because they percieve that we will not leave. But we clearly will (and it is critical that it is percieved to be on our terms). When we DO leave, I predict much of that anti-US sentiment will fade, when it becomes clear that we were not interested in occupation or stealing oil or turning everyone into a Christian.
I completely agree with that. The problem is, as it looks now, if you leave a pro-American gov't behind and pull the troops out, that gov't will fall in a few days. If you let them elect their own gov't, that's gonna be everything but pro-American...
Tiv
Tis tricky for sure.. We will not get a western style democracy (at least initially, though with time we may move somewhat more in that direction). I think the direction we are going is toward representative government with Islamic law in the background. I think this is why the UN negotiator has taken some anti-US stances with regard the Palesineans recently, to build his "cred" as an independent faction and we have given him some leyway. Similar compromise in allowing an Ex-Iraqi intel officer lead the Fallusia brigade...start to give the appearance of the interim government as taking control of military affairs. I am fairly optimistic that we can do this in small steps that build on one another, but I think we need to be flexable (for example, I really think we need to step back from the El Sadar cleric situation and STRONGLY suggest that the more moderate Shite leaders deal with him internally..it is there OWN best interests).
And even if no representative government emerges, I still believe we can leave Iraq with several wins: 1) No Sadam and his murdering ways, an a certain amount of "gratitude" for lack of a better word if for that alone 2) An end to the oil for food scam...a pipeline of BILLIONS of taxpayer dollars to terrorist groups 3) An end to the UN sanctions...which means that the standard of living may actually improve which may ultimatly reduce anti-west hosility (think of the impact of 12 years of sanctions on the people in terms of sentiment) 4) Resolution of the status of WMD in the country (one way or the other). 5) A clear understanding that we will not permit any terrorist training or support. You heard the captured terrorist in Jordan say that the Al Zwahir had planned the massive chemical bomb attack on Jordanian and US embassy targets from IRAQ BEFORE AFGANISTAN. You know Mohammad Atta was meeting with Iraqi intel before 9/11 from captured documents, that the first WTC was planned by a guy who came from and returned to Baghdad, that Sadam planned to murder Bush Sr...this list goes on and IMO exceeds coincidence. 6) A clear understanding to future/present governments, Iraqi or ortherwise (be them pro-western or not) that the US will not tolerate the kind of BS games that Sadam played for 12 years. That we have the will to fight and that we hit hard when pressed..
We see clearly now that without intervention, no one was going to rise up challenge Sadam, or his sons...this dynasty would have continued for years (in contrast with say Iran where change may occur by itself or with a little push), especially given the underlying corruption of the UN that was "charged" with monitoring the situation. I believe for the reasons above that despite the high costs (in lifes lost and financial), and some possible bad moves "post war" (though it it hard to tell what is a bad move sometimes till its all siad and done) that time will ultimatley judge this a good move. And I believe that we are already seeing some fruits of this with the related changes in Pakistan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and even early effects in Iran and N. Korea.
So back to topic, the great longterm good that our troups are doing in Iraq should far outshine this bad deed..
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