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#916075 04/01/04 06:25 PM
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I find it a little frustrating when Americans go buy a $30 or 40k Suburban and then complain about $2.29 for gas. We pay a fraction of the cost of that Europeans pay, and even Canadians are paying more than we are. If you don't like paying so much for gas, buy a smaller car. Very few people I know need a large SUV, and most of them don't need it every day. There are so many people driving their RX330's and ML430's 25 miles to work here...alone. The real solution to gas prices is to use less gas, not to make gas cheaper so more people with big cars can afford to fill up their 30 gallon tanks. Either accept /all/ the consequences of driving such a large car, or buy a smaller car.

Oh, yeah, the last time I filled up at Chevron, it was 1.79, but it goes up quickly from there. There are stations in Seattle that are easily over $2 a gallon. I feel for the people in California though. When I was there over the summer, we could hardly find any gas cheaper than $1.99 a gallon.

Last edited by bluetour; 04/01/04 06:27 PM.

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#916076 04/01/04 06:32 PM
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Just consider the fact that no one, not even the government or oil companies, will argue the fact that we've used at least half of the oil that the Earth ever had.

We've been using oil for 150 years, so that gives us another 150 years to fix things, right?

Bzzzzt.

The population is several times what it was 150 years ago, so we're using it several times faster.

So if it took 150 years for an average population of 2.5 billion people to consume half the oil, it will only take 35 years to consume the same amount of oil at our current population growth.

But there's more....

Every item we use everyday uses oil, whereas even 50 years ago almost nothing was made from oil but gasoline.

We're using oil at a rate several times faster than even our grandparents did, and exponentially faster than our great-grandparents did.

There's no doubt amongst any reputable experts that the current reserves will last more than 30 years at current consumption rates.

Even if one were to say that we still had 75% of the oil reserves left after 150 years, we still wouldn't last more than 70 years provided oil consumption didn't increase at all over that time -- which it of course would. In 70 years the population will be double what it is now.

But, there's even more on top of the fact that it's running out.

The half of the oil that is left will cost exponentially more to retrieve than the oil we have been getting, whether it's because of it's depth or its' location on the surface of the Earth. It's far cheaper to drill in the surface of Kuwait than off the Antarctic Coast.

Like it or not, within 3-5 years we WILL be paying $5/gallon for gas in the United States. Irregardless of whatever OPEC does, it still is going to cost Exxon-Mobil considerably more in the near future to retrieve oil thanit does now.

It's not the impact on how much you pay that you should be worried about. It's the impact on our economy when all of us are paying $500+ per month just to drive our cars.

Gas prices are going to far exceed automakers ability to push out fuel-saving cars, and definently far exceed our nation's total inability to implement mass transit solutions.

Whether it's 3, 5, 10, or even 15 years at a stretch, the plain and simply truth of the matter is that something very very bad is going to happen to our country and the World in our lifetimes. There's simply not enough time to adequately solve the problem anymore.





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#916077 04/01/04 06:42 PM
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Originally posted by sigma:
Whether it's 3, 5, 10, or even 15 years at a stretch, the plain and simply truth of the matter is that something very very bad is going to happen to our country and the World in our lifetimes. There's simply not enough time to adequately solve the problem anymore.





Please somebody make the scary man go away

#916078 04/01/04 06:47 PM
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Anyone who knows me knows that I'm not a Doomsdayer, not a Conspiracy Theorist, Chicken Little, etc, etc.

But, when we are presented with facts that are agreed upon by some of the most intelligent people on the planet... I mean, Come on!

NASA finds an Asteroid that may Cross our path in 2000 years and it's Headline News. The US Energy Secretary says that we've got 10 years left before our lives turn to [censored] because there's no more oil, and it's not talked about.


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#916079 04/01/04 06:51 PM
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Sigma, you must be crazy man. We find new oil everyday. Especially underneath the ocean. There are vast amounts of oil under the ocean we haven't even found yet. Not to mention the fact that we use other country's oil in order to save ours. We'll be using oil for at least another 150 years, and I'm sure they'll have another energy source by then anyways.


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#916080 04/01/04 07:06 PM
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Quote:

Sigma, you must be crazy man. We find new oil everyday. Especially underneath the ocean. There are vast amounts of oil under the ocean we haven't even found yet.




Experts aren't saying we have used at least half of what we have found -- they're saying we've used half of what there is. This comes from every Oil Company out there, OPEC nations, even our own Energy Secretary.

It's too bad that every government agency, both domestic and international (including OPEC themselves) and every oil company disagrees with you.

I never said that we don't find more oil everyday. We know there is more oil out there. Problem is we don't find more at a pace that even comes to close to matching our usage increase every year.

And, you're correct, there is Oil under the Ocean. Oil that will cost MANY MANY times more to retrieve than the surface-drilled oil. Have you seen the size of of the oil rigs being built now? Billions of dollars just to hit a few pockets of oil. Oil rig construction peaked years ago. The rigs now need to be far too large to go deep enough and don't get a good return.

We will have to drill that oil at some point -- but you'll be paying $20/gallon for it.

If there's so much oil than why for the last 3 months has every Oil and Natural Gas producer been revising their reserve estimates by HUGE amounts.

Oil reserve estimates have been "revised" by 30% in the last 3 months. Natural Gas reserve estimates have been "revised" by 41%.

These aren't government or scientific projections; these are from the owners of the fields themselves to their stockholders as their fields that they thought were huge, were beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

Whoopsie?

Quote:

We'll be using oil for at least another 150 years, and I'm sure they'll have another energy source by then anyways.




Putting your fingers in your ears and going "La-la-la-la-la" doesn't make the problem go away. We haven't found a replacement for oil in 150 years, what makes you think we're going to find one in the nextg 150 years?

Quote:

Not to mention the fact that we use other country's oil in order to save ours.




Our oil production peaked in the early '70's. We're not "saving" ours, we don't have any because we already used most of it. We've got thousands of scientists scouring the US for more oil fields with no luck.

Every oil field in the domestic US has been tapped for a very long time. We're to the point now that we have to pump chemicals into the Earth to dilute to oil to make it cheap enough to retrieve it, then remove those chemicals afterwards.

This all makes the oil VERY expensive.

Running out of the Oil isn't the big problem. It is a big problem, but not the first one that we're going to come across.

The problem is what's going to happen to our economy when the price of a barrel of oil is several times what it is now.

It's easy to argue how much oil is out there. You can't see it, so anyone can say there's as much as they want to say. I'll grant you that.

You can't argue that Oil Production peaked 4 years ago, that's a fact, while the expenses to retrieve the declining amount of oil have increased (so you can't say that production decreased to increase price, because expenses would decrease at the same rate) -- meaning it costs considerably more to pump a barrel of oil now than it did just 4 years ago.

We've found more fields, built more rigs/pumps/etc, yet production is still declining every year. It's only a matter of time before the decline in supply meets the absolute minimum demand, which is increasing while supply is decreasing.


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#916081 04/01/04 07:14 PM
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Originally posted by JayBoSVT:
Sigma, you must be crazy man. We find new oil everyday. Especially underneath the ocean. There are vast amounts of oil under the ocean we haven't even found yet. Not to mention the fact that we use other country's oil in order to save ours. We'll be using oil for at least another 150 years, and I'm sure they'll have another energy source by then anyways.




If we haven't found the oil under the ocean, how do we know it's there ??


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#916082 04/01/04 07:51 PM
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Oil takes a long time to produce, and in the end -- its still a finite resource.

IMHO, I'd like the US government to grow some balls and start putting more money into R$D into more experimental technologies (like methanol powered vehicles) and begin giving tax incentives (breaks) for people who drive smaller displacement vehicles.

When the "Soccer Moms" are buying up Excursions to go to the grocery two blocks down, that is decadence at it's finest.

Oh, and gas is 90c/litre here, that works out to $3.60CAD/gal, which is $2.75USD/gal. So you guys still have it easy = p.

Days like this though I wished I bought a TDI ; p.

Last edited by ODC; 04/01/04 07:53 PM.
#916083 04/01/04 07:52 PM
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Originally posted by MarkO:
Originally posted by JayBoSVT:
Sigma, you must be crazy man. We find new oil everyday. Especially underneath the ocean. There are vast amounts of oil under the ocean we haven't even found yet. Not to mention the fact that we use other country's oil in order to save ours. We'll be using oil for at least another 150 years, and I'm sure they'll have another energy source by then anyways.




If we haven't found the oil under the ocean, how do we know it's there ??




We have found oil under the ocean.


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#916084 04/01/04 07:58 PM
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Originally posted by JayBoSVT:
Originally posted by MarkO:
Originally posted by JayBoSVT:
Sigma, you must be crazy man. We find new oil everyday. Especially underneath the ocean. There are vast amounts of oil under the ocean we haven't even found yet. Not to mention the fact that we use other country's oil in order to save ours. We'll be using oil for at least another 150 years, and I'm sure they'll have another energy source by then anyways.




If we haven't found the oil under the ocean, how do we know it's there ??




We have found oil under the ocean.




So because we have found oil under the ocean before, you assume that there is more down there ? I put in the bolding to illustrate my point.


Bless our servicemen & women overseas. L.Cpl Ian Malone, 1st Battalion Irish Guards, R.I.P.
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