When you are chicken, don't want to drive 2000 miles for an autocross, or just want to quote Sun Tzu like Ed, and KNOW YOUR ENEMY, you can play number games. The following theoretical analysis shows different techniques for creating theoretical "bench racing" times. No fancy regression analysis or standard deviation of the mean, just a giant SWAG:
Imagine you have raced a guy before and want to guestimate how you would have done at another event 2000 miles away.
STEP 1: Create a ratio of times between the prior course and course you are guestimating on. Divide your buddies longer course time by the shorter course time:
126.022 seconds / 25.134 seconds = 5.014
Step 2: Multiply the result above by your actual previous course time on the shorter course in which both of you competed:
5.014 X 24.267 seconds = 121.675 seconds
Step 3: Subtract time for autocross tires/other theoretically legal mods:
121.675 - 7 seconds (autoX tires, etc) = 114.675
121.675 - 6 seconds = 115.675
121.675 - 5 seconds = 116.675
So depending on how much you think autocross tires are worth on two minutes of course time you get an idea of your theoretical time.
BUT, CAVEAT, JUST TO MAKE SURE
To cross check these results, here is another way to play the game.
Look for a time of someone else at the distant event who has actually competed against someone you have run against. Then establish a ratio between those two guys, and apply the result to your previous encounters.
Step 1: Establish the ratio between the guy you have actually run against and the one you have not.
113.305 seconds/111.341 (San Diego National Tour)
= 1.01764
Step 2: Just to be on the safe side, look for another event in which you can compare the two.
50.132 seconds/49.191 seconds (2001 National Championship)=1.01913
Step 3: Multiply the larger of the two figures above by the actual course time of the person you have never run against:
1.01913 X 104.273 seconds = 106.268 seconds
This gives you the theoretical time of the guy who did not run the distant event, but has run against both you and a guy at the event you are investigating.
Step 4: Create a ratio between you and the guy you have actually run against before.
133.819 seconds/124.336 seconds (March 2002, Hunt Army Airfield, Alabama, two courses, same day)
= 1.075404
Step 5: Multiply the ratio from step 4 by your buddy's theoretical time from step 3:
1.075404 X 106.268 seconds = 114.281 seconds
This is another theoretical time you might have run at the distant event. You compare the times in both examples and note quite a discrepancy. Of course, it is all theoretical and while highly accomplished drivers will drive basically the same vis-a-vis each other, someone may have a bad day, the course design variations may favor a certain type of car, etc.
Sorry it is confusing. Will try to clarify later. Good night.
