It's still way too early to say one way or the other. The probabilities on that position line after Tuesday fall to less than 10%, they're not above 50% confidence on their Sunday position. LOTS of stuff can change.
We'll have a better idea once it gets into the Gulf, about where that chart shows it'll be on Wednesday morning. Even then though, all it takes is a slight stall in the warm Gulf to turn a 3 to a 5 literally within hours.
