I'm not claiming any secrets on oil company spending. I'm expecting these discretionary items to be legitimate, overt and nothing to hide. Net income does not tell the whole story.
The information I received the Saudi Arabia figures from are direct from the U.S. Department of Energy. I consider that to be a reliable source. Even if Iran pulls from Western markets, if they sell all that oil to China, it's the same thing. If they pull out completely, they will be committing suicide. Venezuela would also be collapsing their own economy if they didn't supply oil. Even if someone else is buying it, it's still on the market. I see the realistic chances of them disrupting real supply to be next to nonexistent. It's all rhetoric.
Again, the hurricanes caused paranoia. Saudi Arabia had even offered to make up the difference in production, but it was the restriction of refining capacity that ended up making the question moot. Added crude wasn't going to do any good, yet the price of crude still went up.
Yet the short term oil contracts have gone through the roof, despite no short term oil constraint. That makes no legitimate sense. I could see longer term contracts adding a premium, but it should have no effect on the price today.
