I've seen reports that AQ and the local Sunni insurgents are starting to have big falling-outs and even are getting into gun battles with each other. And the Al-Qaeda bombing in Amman, Jordan was a HUGE miscalculation...when half the victims are common Muslims in a nation led by a king who has no tolerance for terrorism, you're just asking for a scimitar up your lousy butt. Al-Qaeda's leadership is taking hit after hit in the battle for Muslim hearts and minds (hey, where have we heard that before?), and I think that once that AQ influence gets dulled and/or removed from the Iraqi population, you're going to see the insurgency all but disappear quickly.

And here's some thoughts from Senator McCain (November 10, 2005), for what it's worth:
Quote:

When America toppled Saddam, we incurred a moral duty not to abandon the people there to terrorists and killers. If we withdraw prematurely, risking all-out civil war, we will have done precisely that. I can hardly imagine that any U.S. senator or any American leader would want our nation to suffer that moral stain.

And yet the implications of premature withdrawal from Iraq are not moral alone; they directly involve our national security. Instability in Iraq would invite further Syrian and Iranian interference, bolstering the influence of two terror-sponsoring states firmly opposed to American policy. Iraqâ??s neighbors â??? from Saudi Arabia to Israel to Turkey â??? would feel their own security eroding, and might be induced to act. This uncertain swirl of events would have a damaging impact on our ability to promote positive change in the Middle East, to say the least.

Withdrawing before there is a stable and legitimate Iraqi authority would turn Iraq into a failed state, in the heart of the Middle East. We have seen a failed state emerge after U.S. disengagement once before, and it cost us terribly. In pre-9/11 Afghanistan, terrorists found sanctuary to train and plan attacks with impunity. We know that there are today in Iraq terrorists who are planning attacks against Americans. We cannot make this fatal mistake twice.

If we leave Iraq prematurely, the jihadists will interpret the withdrawal as their great victory against our great power. Osama bin Laden and his followers believe that America is weak, unwilling to suffer casualties in battle. They drew that lesson from Lebanon in the 1980s and Somalia in the 1990s, and today they have their sights set squarely on Iraq. The recently released letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Ladenâ??s lieutenant, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, draws out the implications. The Zawahiri letter is predicated on the assumption that the United States will leave Iraq, and that al Qaedaâ??s real game begins as soon as we abandon the country. In his missive, Zawahiri lays out a four stage plan â??? establish a caliphate in Iraq, extend the â??jihad waveâ? to the secular countries neighboring Iraq, clash with Israel â??? none of which shall commence until the completion of stage one: expel the Americans from Iraq. Zawahiri observes that the collapse of American power in Vietnam, â??and how they ran and left their agents,â? suggests that â??we must be ready starting now.â?

We canâ??t let them start, now or ever. We must stay in Iraq until the government there has a fully functioning security apparatus that can keep Zarqawi and his terrorists at bay, and ultimately defeat them. Some argue that it our very presence in Iraq that has created the insurgency, and that if we end the occupation, we end the insurgency. But in fact by ending military operations, we are likely to empower the insurgency. Zarqawi and others fight not just against foreign forces but also against the Shia, whom they believe to be infidels, and against all elements of the government. Sunni insurgents attack Kurds, Turcomans, Christians and other Iraqis, not simply to end the American occupation but to recapture lost Sunni power. As AEIâ??s Fredrick Kagan has written, these Sunni are not yet persuaded that violence is counterproductive; on the contrary, they believe the insurgency might lead to an improvement in their political situation. There is no reason to think that an American drawdown would extinguish these motivations to fight.

Because we cannot pull out and hope for the best, because we cannot withdraw and manage things from afar, because morality and our security compel it, we have to see this mission through to completion. Senator Kerryâ??s call for the withdrawal of 20,000 American troops by yearâ??s end represents, I believe, a major step on the road to disaster. Drawdowns must be based on conditions in-country, not arbitrary deadlines rooted in our domestic politics.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-11_11_05_SJM.html

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