|
|
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 338
CEG\'er
|
CEG\'er
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 338 |
you have some good points there james. by the way cahnge your sig, it still says sign up for sz05. on the up side I saw prices in newaygo MI jump at first up to 3.79 for regular unleaded. 3.99 for premium. Ubout an hour later they were down to 3.59 3.79 respectively. now this morning prices were back down to 3.19 3.39 in grand rapids. I do agree there needs to be much more emphasis on building more, better refineries. There is no way in hell that the oil companies or the government can expect 30 year old refineries to keep up with todays demand. Just as car companies are being force by the government to build cleaner more efficient cars, so too should the oil companies have to build cleaner, more efficient refineries. Also the refineries can only refine so much oil at a time and since so many refineries are down I dont see why the prices of crude are going up either, and in that case why are we tapping the national reserve for crude oil when we cat refine that oil anyway. Something is very fishy with this picture.
95 mystique daily driver
96 mystique parts car
95 contour 3.0L oval port swap in the works
check my classified ad
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,718
Hard-core CEG'er
|
|
Hard-core CEG'er
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,718 |
Originally posted by Zoom Zoom Diva:
Actually, that is the illogical part. The shortage is in the refining stage. This means there is a relative surplus of crude oil. The refinery should be seeking to purchase crude at lowest cost.
Since there is more crude oil than we can refine into gasoline, that should actually cause the value of crude oil to decrease, not increase.
The key here is that the ENTIRE oil and gas market seems to hinge on futures trading, which can radically warp the value of the various petroleum products.
Perception becomes reality; there's no better example than the rumors of extreme shortages in Atlanta. It created a run on gas overnight and inflated the price of gas to astronomical proportions despite the reality that the shortage is nowhere that significant...
JaTo
e-Tough Guy
Missouri City, TX
99 Contour SVT
#143/2760
00 Corvette Coupe
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,718
Hard-core CEG'er
|
|
Hard-core CEG'er
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,718 |
Originally posted by Zoom Zoom Diva:
Given the unprecedented & record breaking profits of the oil companies in the last few years, its hard to imagine why any oil company would WANT to build new refineries.
A petroleum refinery is one of the most capital-intensive pieces of real-estate one can sink money into; doubly so that the EPA has impossibly strict mandates that have inflated the costs of building these facilities to an astronomical level...
Combine this with what could potentially be a decade-long ROI, many companies can easily find better investments. Finally, old refineries cost 1/4 to 1/2 to buy and re-tool to whatever needs to be produced.
Originally posted by Zoom Zoom Diva:
If government is preventing a new player from coming into the game, they should then require new refineries to be built.
I feel like shooting myself for saying it, but the conditions that exist in the open market today may require that some level of govt. subsidies take hold to remedy the situation.
The big question I have is why certain upstarts have NOT run into 3rd world countries that are relatively stable, have lax environmental controls and try to set up shop there...
JaTo
e-Tough Guy
Missouri City, TX
99 Contour SVT
#143/2760
00 Corvette Coupe
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 678
Veteran CEG\'er
|
|
Veteran CEG\'er
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 678 |
Originally posted by JaTo:
The big question I have is why certain upstarts have NOT run into 3rd world countries that are relatively stable, have lax environmental controls and try to set up shop there...
Again, why would oil companies build refineries ANYWHERE when they are making money now faster than they can count it?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,718
Hard-core CEG'er
|
|
Hard-core CEG'er
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 3,718 |
Big Oil aren't the only players in the market; there are smaller operations (true, there are only a few in the refining game anymore, but they are out there) that could expand operations and thereby try to grab a bigger piece of the pie.
I know of one particular small outfit that has set contracts out for about 6-8 months that favor their existing customers; they are running flat-out and have no excess capacity to speak of anymore and barely had any the last 5 years.
JaTo
e-Tough Guy
Missouri City, TX
99 Contour SVT
#143/2760
00 Corvette Coupe
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,249
Hard-core CEG\'er
|
|
Hard-core CEG\'er
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,249 |
ok hers a thought...we will pay over a buck for a bottle of water..But no one realy complains about that....
Wesley
1999 SVT black
And a Blond Haired Blue eyes girlfriend. How can it get any better?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 3,193
Hard-core CEG\'er
|
|
Hard-core CEG\'er
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 3,193 |
Originally posted by JaTo:
I feel like shooting myself for saying it, but the conditions that exist in the open market today may require that some level of govt. subsidies take hold to remedy the situation.
Do you have any idea how painful it is for ME of all people to say it too? However, between allowing the collusion of the existing refineries to geographically segment the nation, the excessive barriers to entry presented by regulation... and numerous other barriers to entry government has artifically added onto the existing ones... they need to either remove all those barriers or do something to mitigate those barriers.
Brad "Diva": 2004 Mazda 6s 5-door, Volcanic Red
Rex: 1988 Mazda RX-7 Vert, Harbor Blue.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 443
CEG\'er
|
|
CEG\'er
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 443 |
Originally posted by JaTo:
Big Oil aren't the only players in the market; there are smaller operations (true, there are only a few in the refining game anymore, but they are out there) that could expand operations and thereby try to grab a bigger piece of the pie.
I know of one particular small outfit that has set contracts out for about 6-8 months that favor their existing customers; they are running flat-out and have no excess capacity to speak of anymore and barely had any the last 5 years.
And therein lies the problem. Basically, we run at 95% refining capacity (supply) at present in order to keep up with gasoline demand on a daily basis, this leaves no room for error. Refinement capacity is our weak link. Crude oil supply has just started to become a problem over the last couple of years, and as more public awareness of the limited amounts of oil the earth has to offer becomes more widely known, supply concerns are starting to show up in our pricing structures, particularly as the Chinese economy ramps up and supply concerns multiply.
Right now, our refining capacity has been negatively affected, and since we don't have any "room to move" via extra capacity for refining crude product, that will inevitably affect current prices as suppliers become concerned about running short of supply because of a temporary inability to refine product, which we're already seeing via rationing in some areas. Couple this with increased demand, when supply is down, and you get what we're seeing, dramatically increased prices. Price is the only controllable factor to decrease demand. It all makes perfect economic sense to me, I don't see anything illogical ongoing.
If the American people weren't so shortsighted and self centered, i.e. a bit better educated, people wouldn't run to the pumps gassing up every car they own and certain regions wouldn't be experiencing the problems to the extent that they now are. But hey, I can't say I'm surprised...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 2,127
Hard-core CEG'er
|
|
Hard-core CEG'er
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 2,127 |
Exactly, While I do believe there are spot shortages, (my local BP stations only have premium fuel for example) looking at the government figures, we have a stockpile of about three weeks of finished gasoline on hand. Now, what I don't know is did we lose a bunch of that in NO and if so, how much? We did lose 10% of our refining capacity in the storm, but the other 90% is there, along with some percentage of our stockpile of finished gasoline. Then of course there is the stockpile of crude not counting the Strategic Petroleum reserve, good for about two weeks of supply needed for all refining needs, and add to that about 30 days supply in the Strategic Petroleum reserve. So it would take two months of not pumping another drop of domestic oil out of the ground and not getting another drop of imported oil before the refineries would have to shut down. Or, if all the refineries shut down today, we would be out of gas in two to three weeks. The above is based on a quick look at the numbers here and some "in the head" math: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/5tab.htmland http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
"Seems like our society is more interested in turning each successive generation into cookie-cutter wankers than anything else." -- Jato 8/24/2004
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jun 2000
Posts: 77
CEG\'er
|
|
CEG\'er
Joined: Jun 2000
Posts: 77 |
The United States has 4 % of the worlds population, uses 35% of the worlds energy, and generates over 50% of the worlds solid waste.
Obviously there is a price to pay for our conspicuous consumption. Actually gas has been too cheap for too long in this country, and that fact contributed to the popularity of low milage SUV's and the like the past 15 years. Gas milage actually went down in this period because of this. We all see everyday one person driving a 5000 lb. Excursion or similar vehicle that almost never goes "offroad". Just think about it. ( Interesting that in this thread a prevalent topic is that of conservation, i.e. riding bikes, mopeds, getting a high milage vehicle etc).
Early in the Clinton administration, there was a proposal to have an energy tax based on a BTU basis. The objective was to lessen our overall energy consumption and to lessen our dependence on foreign oil through conservation. But Congress failed to act ( much the same as Congress failed to act on Clintons health care proposal).
Today our glutonous consumption of foreign oil and failure to enact an energy policy in which conservation is the cornerstone threatens our economy and weakens our national security. And the runaway costs of our broken health care system, which includes 45 million Americans who have no health insurance at all, is a national disgrace in the richest country in the world.
Think about it next time you fill up at the pump, or are unable to pay medical bills.
98 SVT T-Red. 17" Borbets w/GY Eagle F1 GS-D3's, Koni/Eibach setup, urethane suspension bushings. Aussie Bar. Battery in trunk, open K&N Filter. B&M Shifter. Gauge pod w/ volts, oil pressure, oil temp. Sparco drivers seat, Schroth harness belt
|
|
|
|
|
