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Originally posted by Sandman333:
Time for a little perspective:
Every male over the age of 17 is guaranteed to have at least one AK-47, and likely many more than one. Now, do the math.
Well ... if we are to assume the above is true, that would make Iraq an exceptionally dangerous place to be. Here's that math based on U.S. Census Bureau data from the year 2000.
Males 15-19: 1,355,000
Males 20-24: 1,161,000
Males 25-29: 995,000
Males 30-34: 839,000
TOTAL: 4,350,000
However, looking at the data from the CIA, according to a number of reports reports from November 2003 through June 2004, here's the estimated size and scope of the insurgency.
Sunni Triangle: 5,000 core fighters + 20-50K active supporters
Mahdi Army: 3-10k
Fallujah: 2000
Samarra: 2000
Baquba: 1000
Baghdad: 1000 (but probably much larger since the June report)
Ramadi: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
al-Qaim: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Mosul: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Kirkuk: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Take the worst case scenario above; allow 2000 for each of Ramadi, al-Qaim, Mosul and Kirkuk; add them all up and then double for good measure - the total is 150,000 - or approximately 3.5% of the male population aged 15-34.
Time for a little perspective indeed.
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Hard-core CEG'er
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UNCLASSIFIED Intelligence reports are VERY accurate *insert sarcasm* Originally posted by Mysti-ken:
Originally posted by Sandman333:
Time for a little perspective:
Every male over the age of 17 is guaranteed to have at least one AK-47, and likely many more than one. Now, do the math.
Well ... if we are to assume the above is true, that would make Iraq an exceptionally dangerous place to be. Here's that math based on U.S. Census Bureau data from the year 2000.
Males 15-19: 1,355,000
Males 20-24: 1,161,000
Males 25-29: 995,000
Males 30-34: 839,000
TOTAL: 4,350,000
However, looking at the data from the CIA, according to a number of reports reports from November 2003 through June 2004, here's the estimated size and scope of the insurgency.
Sunni Triangle: 5,000 core fighters + 20-50K active supporters
Mahdi Army: 3-10k
Fallujah: 2000
Samarra: 2000
Baquba: 1000
Baghdad: 1000 (but probably much larger since the June report)
Ramadi: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
al-Qaim: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Mosul: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Kirkuk: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Take the worst case scenario above; allow 2000 for each of Ramadi, al-Qaim, Mosul and Kirkuk; add them all up and then double for good measure - the total is 150,000 - or approximately 3.5% of the male population aged 15-34.
Time for a little perspective indeed.
Ryan
Trollin!
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CEG\'er
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Originally posted by RTStabler51:
UNCLASSIFIED Intelligence reports are VERY accurate *insert sarcasm*
Well gee ... if the CIA is going to lie about it, I guess that just refutes the heck out of my numbers. Wish you'd spoken up sooner about the CIA deception before I did all that research.
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Wouldn't that be DEclassified? 
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Originally posted by Mysti-ken:
Originally posted by Sandman333:
Time for a little perspective:
Every male over the age of 17 is guaranteed to have at least one AK-47, and likely many more than one. Now, do the math.
You raise possibly a good point - how many people in Iraq are potentially armed insurgents? I'll see what statistics are available to do the math ... in the meantime could you please provide sources re: your point about gun possession?
Sure, my source is myself. I was there for 14 months. I stood on checkpoints and searched vehicles. We came up with every manner of weapon imaginable. Further, about 4 months into my deployment the CPA declared that the maximum allowable weapons "cache" per household was 1 AK-47 with 2 clips of ammo per 17 yr old and older male. I did not witness any massive turn in of weapons that would have been required to be in compliance with that.
When Saddam realized that he was going to lose, he opened the mental hospitals, prisons, and armories. Those armories were looted, and all those weapons melted into the populace.
I think that is pretty conclusive.
95 Contour SE ATX V6- SOLD
2001.5 VW Passat GLX V6 Tiptronic
2004 Honda VTX 1800N1
There are no stupid questions.
There are a LOT of inquisitive idiots.
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Originally posted by Mysti-ken:
Originally posted by Sandman333:
Time for a little perspective:
Every male over the age of 17 is guaranteed to have at least one AK-47, and likely many more than one. Now, do the math.
Well ... if we are to assume the above is true, that would make Iraq an exceptionally dangerous place to be. Here's that math based on U.S. Census Bureau data from the year 2000.
Males 15-19: 1,355,000
Males 20-24: 1,161,000
Males 25-29: 995,000
Males 30-34: 839,000
TOTAL: 4,350,000
However, looking at the data from the CIA, according to a number of reports reports from November 2003 through June 2004, here's the estimated size and scope of the insurgency.
Sunni Triangle: 5,000 core fighters + 20-50K active supporters
Mahdi Army: 3-10k
Fallujah: 2000
Samarra: 2000
Baquba: 1000
Baghdad: 1000 (but probably much larger since the June report)
Ramadi: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
al-Qaim: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Mosul: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Kirkuk: unspecified (but probably less than Baghdad)
Take the worst case scenario above; allow 2000 for each of Ramadi, al-Qaim, Mosul and Kirkuk; add them all up and then double for good measure - the total is 150,000 - or approximately 3.5% of the male population aged 15-34.
Time for a little perspective indeed.
Ever heard of Vietnam? They came up with similar statistics then. And they were just as phony. I've been on the ground, and I've seen what is going on over there. You can expect that everyone you meet owns an AK, and likely more than one. Their "estimates" of the numbers of insurgents is laughable.
95 Contour SE ATX V6- SOLD
2001.5 VW Passat GLX V6 Tiptronic
2004 Honda VTX 1800N1
There are no stupid questions.
There are a LOT of inquisitive idiots.
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Hard-core CEG'er
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Originally posted by Sandman333:
Originally posted by Mysti-ken:
Originally posted by Sandman333:
Time for a little perspective:
Every male over the age of 17 is guaranteed to have at least one AK-47, and likely many more than one. Now, do the math.
You raise possibly a good point - how many people in Iraq are potentially armed insurgents? I'll see what statistics are available to do the math ... in the meantime could you please provide sources re: your point about gun possession?
Sure, my source is myself. I was there for 14 months. I stood on checkpoints and searched vehicles. We came up with every manner of weapon imaginable. Further, about 4 months into my deployment the CPA declared that the maximum allowable weapons "cache" per household was 1 AK-47 with 2 clips of ammo per 17 yr old and older male. I did not witness any massive turn in of weapons that would have been required to be in compliance with that.
When Saddam realized that he was going to lose, he opened the mental hospitals, prisons, and armories. Those armories were looted, and all those weapons melted into the populace.
I think that is pretty conclusive.
I've been waiting all day to post this:
OWN3D!!!!!!!
-- 1999 SVT #220 --
In retrospect, it was all downhill from here. RIP, CEG.
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Originally posted by Sandman333:
Ever heard of Vietnam? They came up with similar statistics then. And they were just as phony
So you claim the CIA is lieing about the number of Iraqi insurgents and as proof you offer an unsubstantiated charge that they "also" lied about something to do with Viet Nam.
Now, I'm not saying the CIA doesn't lie, but you haven't come close to proving it. And if they are lieing, can you say for a certainty that they are deflating the numbers; maybe they're inflating them.
Originally posted by Sandman333:
I've been on the ground, and I've seen what is going on over there. You can expect that everyone you meet owns an AK, and likely more than one.
I respect that you've been there and witnessed things first hand; and I can easily accept that every Iraqi you came into contact with, or heard about, was carrying.
But with respect, that's still a far cry from being in a position to backup your claim that the CIA's estimates are "laughable" - especially if no one else seems to be disputing them.
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Davo, if I mock you for going over the top with your exaggeration that this Fallujah campaign really IS as dangerous and important as those battles you cited, it seems to me that you bring such criticism upon yourself by doing that wild hype.
You were just about to defend your statment and explain how dangerous this campaign is compared to Iwo, where we suffered how many THOUSANDS of OUR killed and wounded taking over only a few square miles of island, and the defenders had no where to go but dying for the emperor. Iwo was just as dangerous as Fallujah?
If you really agree with yourself that this offensive is as dangerous as those battles you mentioned, I'm sorry, but you deserved it.
But it's charming that you mentioned Napolean after first citing Stalingrad. Are you a fan of combining Russian winters with military campaigns? If so, you could check out Hans von Luck's Panzer Commander, its a quick read, and you get his coverage of Rommell/Afrika to boot.
Hey, it's a pleasure conversing with you.
MSDS, SHO-shop Y, custom 2.5" catback; xcal2; 63mm TB, K&N 3530; Koni struts, Aussie bar; THaines forks, Quaife, SpecII, UR fly; DMD; Nima UD pullies; Stazi brakes; f&r Pole120 mounts. Just a daily commuter car. Silver '98 SVT E0 #3159
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wow, it usually takes a lot for me to call someone ignorant, but you take the cake. I have been all over Iraq, from just over the Kuwait border all the way to LSA Anaconda (1/2 way between Baghdad and Mosoul). When the insurgents kicked up their offensive last April and kidnapped PFC Maupin, I recognized that intersection because I used to drive by it 2 or 3 times a week escorting gasoline convoys. Shortly before Maupin's kidnapping, a 28mm anti-aircraft cannon was found in one of the apartments along that ASR, pointed at the highway, locked and loaded.
I escorted Burger King to BIAP (Baghdad International Airport, for you civilians). I wasn't just driving a HUMMWV, I was in charge of the convoy. We got shot at with a RPG (idiot misfired it and he blew himself up) on the way. That Burger King became the most profitable BK in the world (limited menu, and somewhat deprived, captive customers).
I was shot at on my convoys so much that my Battallion HQ nicknamed me Bullet Magnet. I've been attacked with AK-47's, RPGs, mortars, Grenade Launchers, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, Russian made claymore-style AP mines, 152mm and 155mm mortar/arty rounds buried along the MSR as IEDs (still have pieces of those).
I've taken my squad out and conducted hasty checkpoints and searched hundres of vehicles. I've confiscated more weapons than I can remember. I've personally seen acres of unguarded munitions dumps throughout Iraq. I've seen tracers zipping by my head and returned fire. I've escorted prisoners both North and South of Baghdad. I've seen the fear in a driver's eyes (Iraqi) when I told him I was going to leave him behind if he didn't drive his truck faster. I've stood on checkpoints where I was completely exposed due to serious lack of manpower and only through an act of God was I spared from some madman driving up with a car-bomb. (Oh, our compound was attacked with a car bomb too, I have pictures of that also).
Your notion that numbers of enemy were not fudged in Viet-Nam is also laughable. I would have thought that our military would have learned their lessons from that war, but apparently not.
Lastly, if you are not going to live in reality, then there is nothing I can say that will bring light into your ignorance. But don't pretend to ever tell me what my experience has taught me or try to dismiss it somehow. Until you have been there and pounded that ground, you can shut the [censored] up.
95 Contour SE ATX V6- SOLD
2001.5 VW Passat GLX V6 Tiptronic
2004 Honda VTX 1800N1
There are no stupid questions.
There are a LOT of inquisitive idiots.
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