There still haven't been enough recent polls to really draw any conclusion. The vast majority of the polls particularly in the closer states were completed prior to the debates when, according to every poll I've seen, Kerry gained anywhere from 2 to 8% points. I was looking at another site for the electoral college predictions and they had Kerry ahead -- so it's all a matter of how the statistics are done. Some of the regression on electoral-college looks weird to me, and some of the assumptions on the one I was looking at earlier (which I can't find right now) were equally unusual.
We'll see how it goes. It'll be interesting for sure.
