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Don't let it get to you, JaTo. Isn't Bush still several points ahead in a state or two that Gore had carried? And the Bush campaign is doing the same thing it did when it opened up its lead before the debate. And the GOP will keep the House of Representatives too, won't it?
I still see the odds as favoring Bush as it stands this moment. But I've been surprised by number both of dems I've talked with who are supporting Bush and GOPers who are for Kerry.
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Quote:
That is what it seems like, but I believe the people that are actually going to vote had already decided who they're gonna vote for before the debate. Yeah there will be a few swing voters, but enuff to count?
Seeing that the race is, for all intents and purposes, a tied race, undecided voter pool is all you need. Various sources place that number anywhere in the range from 8 to 18%.
Hell, at this point if you can swing just a few, and I mean literally a few, you could win the race. Florida came down to only a couple hundred votes in 2000 -- 6 other states were won by less than 1000 votes as I recall.
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Originally posted by sigma:
Quote:
That is what it seems like, but I believe the people that are actually going to vote had already decided who they're gonna vote for before the debate. Yeah there will be a few swing voters, but enuff to count?
Seeing that the race is, for all intents and purposes, a tied race, undecided voter pool is all you need. Various sources place that number anywhere in the range from 8 to 18%.
Hell, at this point if you can swing just a few, and I mean literally a few, you could win the race. Florida came down to only a couple hundred votes in 2000 -- 6 other states were won by less than 1000 votes as I recall.
NM went to gore with just over 300 votes.
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OP
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I understand this, but the swing vote seems to decide off of metrics other than what you and I do (i.e., studied political ideology) and hinge their decision on what "looks and feels" more to their liking on the surface.
Let's face it; the bulk of the swing vote isn't pouring over Senate voting records, nor is it balancing neocon foreign policy vs. retrenching back to the "global village" policy that Clinton seemed fond of, or looking at financial issues of today under the light of the somewhat unique economic circumstances that have existed for the past decade. Most seem sensitive to the messages that each candidate puts forth and judges their position from who has the better "aura" at the moment.
I'll not mince words: If I was a swing-voter and I based my decisions off of the "look and feel" of the moment, Kerry's the pick. Unless Bush can "get with the program" and start sounding like something other than a stubborn ranch-hand when addressing policy in the next two debates, he's going to get his ass handed to him in November.
I firmly believe that the swing vote is going to decide things and the way that the Kerry campaign is handling their message is FAR better than the way the Bush campaign is using theirs, much to my dislike.
JaTo
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JaTo is correct..
The swing voter is generally (obviously, exceptions exist) less imformed about issues and more "suggestable" by a smooth talker than either parties entrenched ideolologs. Further, they are less likely to be watching all the "after debate analysis" that occurs. Its 90 minutes (probably really 60 at best) of debate and then its OVER.
Thus...style DOES count more to them than substance in these debates and why Bush's weak performance has been so damaging...and no amout of as-hoc analysis can change that.
He has 2 more chances...has to win or draw at least on both to have a shot...
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"People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use."
-Soren Kierkegaard (as posted by Jato)
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Originally posted by JaTo:
I understand this, but the swing vote seems to decide off of metrics other than what you and I do (i.e., studied political ideology) and hinge their decision on what "looks and feels" more to their liking on the surface.
The record voter registrations that most states are observing indicates the population is treating this election differently than in the past. Voters know how important this election is, and are paying more attention. For this reason, I don't think this election is going to come down to style over substance. Most of the poll internals did not change after the debates, and the internals is where the race will be won or lost.
Originally posted by JaTo:
I firmly believe that the swing vote is going to decide things and the way that the Kerry campaign is handling their message is FAR better than the way the Bush campaign is using theirs, much to my dislike.
But the Kerry message is garbage. And you're right, Bush did a horrible job of showing just how destructive Kerry's "message" is. When Bush's team, and not Bush, are in charge of showing this over the next 4 weeks, the voters are going to return to their pre-debate mentality.
Would you have preferred that Bush smoke Kerry in the debate last Thursday and enter this Friday's debate cocky, and acting as if the campaign was over? Instead, Bush will prepare for this debate and has the opportunity to affect the campaign in the same way the last debate did.
Dan and JaTo, I'll get back with you in a week and see what you think. In the meantime, John Edwards thinks you've lost your minds.... Edwards: If you're voting for Bush, you've lost your mind.
And Jared, if you're watching, I've heard the audiotape of this interview, so don't try to say it didn't happen because Drudge is reporting it (and I'm sorry about blocking all the names you've IMed me at).
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so now it seems when bush loses it's going to be blamed on how poorly he performed in the debates.  true the debates will count for something, but imo they'll only function to solidify peoples belief that kerry can do a better job than bush. if bush can't handle himself in a pre-scripted debate then how can we expect him to properly run our country which is a much more difficult task? mistakes will be made no doubt, but would someone else have done a better job, that's the question...we're about to find out in a couple months.  and funny how you guys continuously talk about kerry's past voting record like his past is the end all be all of the current. just like bush's past dui and cocaine usage have nothing to do with his current lifestyle right? it's not as cut and dry as it may seem to disect a voting record without looking at all the other variables influencing the votes, it's virtually impossible to have a view into everything happening in the background. i'd rather hold him to his current platform, as long as he doesn't say 'no new taxes' i think he'll be alright.  anyway i guess i'll check out tonight's bash fest between dick and john for some political entertainment. 
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Originally posted by BP:
and funny how you guys continuously talk about kerry's past voting record like his past is the end all be all of the current.
So let me ask you then, what can we use to judge Kerry's qualifications to be president? His voting record? No. His Vietnam service. Yes. Oh wait, no, not when the Swift Boat Vets give their opinion. So what can we use to judge him? His ideas, which are posted on www.johnkerry.com??
You may not have seen it, but a Kerry advisor left Hannity & Colmes last night after Hannity started asking him about Kerry's record. It's simply inexplicable and dangerous. That's most certainly why liberals say you can't judge Kerry's 20 year Senate record.
EDIT: Using BP's logic, Iraq, the economy, and pretty much everything else that has happened in the last 3.5 years can't be used against Bush. You speak as if his actions are "the end all be all of the current".
Last edited by Davo; 10/05/04 06:46 PM.
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Banned
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Originally posted by Davo:
Originally posted by JaTo:
I understand this, but the swing vote seems to decide off of metrics other than what you and I do (i.e., studied political ideology) and hinge their decision on what "looks and feels" more to their liking on the surface.
The record voter registrations that most states are observing indicates the population is treating this election differently than in the past. Voters know how important this election is, and are paying more attention. For this reason, I don't think this election is going to come down to style over substance. Most of the poll internals did not change after the debates, and the internals is where the race will be won or lost.
Originally posted by JaTo:
I firmly believe that the swing vote is going to decide things and the way that the Kerry campaign is handling their message is FAR better than the way the Bush campaign is using theirs, much to my dislike.
But the Kerry message is garbage. And you're right, Bush did a horrible job of showing just how destructive Kerry's "message" is. When Bush's team, and not Bush, are in charge of showing this over the next 4 weeks, the voters are going to return to their pre-debate mentality.
Would you have preferred that Bush smoke Kerry in the debate last Thursday and enter this Friday's debate cocky, and acting as if the campaign was over? Instead, Bush will prepare for this debate and has the opportunity to affect the campaign in the same way the last debate did.
Dan and JaTo, I'll get back with you in a week and see what you think. In the meantime, John Edwards thinks you've lost your minds.... Edwards: If you're voting for Bush, you've lost your mind.
And Jared, if you're watching, I've heard the audiotape of this interview, so don't try to say it didn't happen because Drudge is reporting it (and I'm sorry about blocking all the names you've IMed me at).
Why would I say it never happened, does not surprise me he said it. He's in a presidential campaign of course he is going to throw a few shots at the opponent.
Tonight�s debate should be fun, I can guarantee one of tonight�s issues will Halliburton's no bid government contract.
Last edited by mole1980; 10/05/04 06:57 PM.
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Originally posted by mole1980:
Why would I say it never happened, does not surprise me he said it. He's in a presidential campaign of course he is going to throw a few shots at the opponent.
Uh, he's insulting the people voting for Bush, not Bush.
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