OK let's look at this little list you've made:
Originally posted by Zetetic:
I'm looking at:
- new brake pads
- new shocks?
- complete chassis lubrication (lots of squeaks, and I've had the ebrake cable taken care of)
- new set of tires is coming up kind of soon, I'm on my third set. I do *not* peel out, I just take corners as the csvt wants you to. 
fyi I ran through stock rubber KDWs in 12k, second identical set in 15k, now I'm on the awesome but expensive michelin pilot sport A/S's and am maybe 1/2 to 2/3s of the way through them.
- water pump?
- something for the problems I have shifting (hard to get into first, second, and reverse); maybe I just need the "cocktail"?
- baffled oil pan?
Brake pads are simple and cheap to replace.
Shocks represent a weekend of work and about $250 for a full set of SVT struts. How would all four shocks be dead after 46,000 miles though? I got 80,000 out of mine and that's driving over crappy michigan roads every day.
Chassis lube - not sure about that one as my chassis dosen't "squeak", although the interior plastics and leather sure do! 
Tires - KDW's are known to be high-grip low mileage tires, especially with agressive driving. It's typical.
Water pump - $70 for the metal blade impeller and maybe an hour to change out.
Shifting problems - I'd say likely the shift tower, moderately expensive and moderately difficult to repair.
Not sure about the baffled oil pan.
Unless there are other "serious" problems then this falls under the typical repair and maintenance category of stuff. Hardly worth dumping the car over IMO.
The rest of your post sounds like you verbalizing your worries and indecision over the car, except for this comment:
Originally posted by Zetetic:
I drive my car HARD, and know there are consequences for this.
That really sums it up right there. You sleep in the bed you made. The SVT Contour is a slightly high strung, slightly finicky performance car. NOT something you can just drive and forget about. It requires care and maintenance and isn't the most reliable.
The people who have over 150,000 miles are the ones who drive responsibly and maintain the car agressively. If you're not willing to do those things then maybe you should sell the car after all. 
