A lot is going to have to change to get a large turnout, I believe. Voting areas will be top priority targets for the insurgent population, and I'm banking on them being hit like Hell unless the Iraqi government and the US military can figure out some way to prevent these attacks. There needs to be some serious stability generated to get the numbers needed to establish legitimacy in the minds of the Iraqis. If elections were held today, I would forecast a somewhat low turnout. As for January, who knows? If it mirrors today's Iraq, it's going to be low...
The worrisome part will be how the Shi'ite clerics respond to the elected official, as the amount of "de facto" control they have over the majority of the Iraqi population can make or break a fledgling government in Iraq. Whoever gets elected, at a minimum they will have to be respected by the Shi'ia leadership, if not outright liked.
Of course, this candidate must also appeal to the Kurds and Sunnis, in addition to having our "stamp" of approval on him. It's going to be one heck of a juggling act and the US is really going to have to step back from any type of "power behind the throne" plays. If there's one thing I think the Iraqis will be able to sniff out, it will be us blatantly pulling the strings to make the Iraqi government dance to our tune and ours alone. Our leadership will have to pick their political battles over Iraq carefully, as yanking the wrong string too hard at the wrong time could be extraordinarily disasterous to a fledgling government.
Hopefully, we will get the UN involved by then on the ONE thing they seem to do right; peacekeeping and rebuilding.
I'm cautiously optimistic, but there's landmines and bottomless pits everywhere once the Iraqis take the crown of political legitimacy and democracy into their own hands. Anyone would be an abject fool to think that this transition is going to be anything but difficult, fragile and fraught with pain, misery and heartache along the way.
I've yet to think of ANY democracy on this planet that hasn't waded through a bloodbath or two on it's way to maturity.
It's going to be tough.
