Contour Enthusiasts Group Archives Forums General Common Interests January Elections in Iraq

No, I'm NOT saying there will not be any elections in Iraq in January. Instead, I'm throwing a few questions out there for our CEGers: Will non-theocratic, non-thug candidates win, with some degree of consensus, to head up that country's government? And how much voting participation do you forecast?

Even if they won, do you think they'd actually live to serve their full term?

OMG i was just going to say that the average term would be 1 month before they got blown up. I can see it now, troops there for the next 4 years then leave and say
(bush administration) well, we gave it a try, its not our fault its back before the war.

BGSU?

Big Gay Sausage University?

I think there will be a large turnout. I've also read that there should be two new classes of the Danish-trained Iraqi militia/police deployed before the Iraqi elections happen, so this SHOULD add some weight to the idea of the new Iraq government having its own guard. Most Sunni and [censored] clerics are in unity about religious harmony and condemning the attacks from the insurgents (and especially the beheadings), and from what I read, the general population wants to chart its own destiny.

Election Day will come, and it may be dangerous, but this is a nation of people who've faced danger for decades.

A lot is going to have to change to get a large turnout, I believe. Voting areas will be top priority targets for the insurgent population, and I'm banking on them being hit like Hell unless the Iraqi government and the US military can figure out some way to prevent these attacks. There needs to be some serious stability generated to get the numbers needed to establish legitimacy in the minds of the Iraqis. If elections were held today, I would forecast a somewhat low turnout. As for January, who knows? If it mirrors today's Iraq, it's going to be low...

The worrisome part will be how the Shi'ite clerics respond to the elected official, as the amount of "de facto" control they have over the majority of the Iraqi population can make or break a fledgling government in Iraq. Whoever gets elected, at a minimum they will have to be respected by the Shi'ia leadership, if not outright liked.

Of course, this candidate must also appeal to the Kurds and Sunnis, in addition to having our "stamp" of approval on him. It's going to be one heck of a juggling act and the US is really going to have to step back from any type of "power behind the throne" plays. If there's one thing I think the Iraqis will be able to sniff out, it will be us blatantly pulling the strings to make the Iraqi government dance to our tune and ours alone. Our leadership will have to pick their political battles over Iraq carefully, as yanking the wrong string too hard at the wrong time could be extraordinarily disasterous to a fledgling government.

Hopefully, we will get the UN involved by then on the ONE thing they seem to do right; peacekeeping and rebuilding.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but there's landmines and bottomless pits everywhere once the Iraqis take the crown of political legitimacy and democracy into their own hands. Anyone would be an abject fool to think that this transition is going to be anything but difficult, fragile and fraught with pain, misery and heartache along the way.

I've yet to think of ANY democracy on this planet that hasn't waded through a bloodbath or two on it's way to maturity.

It's going to be tough.