Originally posted by fudrucker:
They�re accurate based on "likely voters". Last Sunday NY saw on of the largest protests in 20 years. Crowd estimates almost a half a million people.

How can you tell me, he has an eleven-point lead? There is a HUGE movement to get him out of there.




NYC is about 80% democrat...it is RARE to see a Republican convention there. THAT is why they had big numbers. Well, that and did you see some of the groups that came to oppose Bush (& support Kerry). "Dikes on bikes", a group of gay men that like to dress as nuns, a group that centers it's life around pot smoking, and a few hundred thousand hippies. Quite a show. As was Kerry's rediculous speech after the convention...shaking his finger, dropping incoherent references. He looked, aggitated...

While I agree, I think the 11% gap will shrink some, perhaps back to margin of error, It is clear things were turning against Kerry before RNC. Bush hit 51% approval the week before...Kerry got zero bounce from the DNC convention...the swift boat controversy.

And now, they are going to shread his senate record.. Kerry gets to deal with another 200,000 jobs created (last month + revised upward estimates of the 2 months before - for a total of 1.7 million new jobs created since the recession/WTC bottom out in 2002). Health care...Bush talking about malpractice reform which will resonate in some of the swing states (W. Va for example where OB care is pretty much wiped out by malpractice premiums..patients cone to Virginia!). While Edwards is the king of southern malpractice suits! Bush is out in front now on intell reform while Edwards/Kerry have only weak performances (failed senate oversight responsibility) and historical intell budget slashing proposals to run with. They want to raise taxes on "the rich" but this will be a tough sell to small business that fall into this catagory and are competing against Bush's tax simplification strategy (again being lawyers is a problem). All this and the bad hurricane season and rampant Al Queda problems in Russia (who along with Spain, & France chose the "other road" in dealing with militant islam) is taking the media away from their little dog and poney road show!

While 2 months is a fairly long time, the next 4 weeks is CRITICAL for both campaigns. It will not be getting any easier for Kerry going forward...

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