I have had that issue before, for me it seemed to happen when there was alot of water on the road or after washing the car, all during the colder months, I figure it could be a sensor but it hasn't sone it in awhile, last winter/spring time. what you said seems to make sense to me. the sensor measure wheel speed by the voltage that they output. now if one or more of the sensors of off then the computer would think that a there is a problem. The TC only trips because it is linked the abs system, they work together. I would make sure the sensors are all alined right and that the area the sesnors read is clean and see what that will do.
Also I have read that it could be related to the wireing harness recall, the wires are just getting old and cousing problems