Contour Enthusiasts Group Archives Forums General Autocross and Open Track Bench Racing in a nutshell

When you are chicken, don't want to drive 2000 miles for an autocross, or just want to quote Sun Tzu like Ed, and KNOW YOUR ENEMY, you can play number games. The following theoretical analysis shows different techniques for creating theoretical "bench racing" times. No fancy regression analysis or standard deviation of the mean, just a giant SWAG:

Imagine you have raced a guy before and want to guestimate how you would have done at another event 2000 miles away.

STEP 1: Create a ratio of times between the prior course and course you are guestimating on. Divide your buddies longer course time by the shorter course time:
126.022 seconds / 25.134 seconds = 5.014

Step 2: Multiply the result above by your actual previous course time on the shorter course in which both of you competed:
5.014 X 24.267 seconds = 121.675 seconds

Step 3: Subtract time for autocross tires/other theoretically legal mods:
121.675 - 7 seconds (autoX tires, etc) = 114.675
121.675 - 6 seconds = 115.675
121.675 - 5 seconds = 116.675

So depending on how much you think autocross tires are worth on two minutes of course time you get an idea of your theoretical time.

BUT, CAVEAT, JUST TO MAKE SURE

To cross check these results, here is another way to play the game.

Look for a time of someone else at the distant event who has actually competed against someone you have run against. Then establish a ratio between those two guys, and apply the result to your previous encounters.

Step 1: Establish the ratio between the guy you have actually run against and the one you have not.
113.305 seconds/111.341 (San Diego National Tour)
= 1.01764

Step 2: Just to be on the safe side, look for another event in which you can compare the two.
50.132 seconds/49.191 seconds (2001 National Championship)=1.01913

Step 3: Multiply the larger of the two figures above by the actual course time of the person you have never run against:

1.01913 X 104.273 seconds = 106.268 seconds
This gives you the theoretical time of the guy who did not run the distant event, but has run against both you and a guy at the event you are investigating.

Step 4: Create a ratio between you and the guy you have actually run against before.
133.819 seconds/124.336 seconds (March 2002, Hunt Army Airfield, Alabama, two courses, same day)
= 1.075404

Step 5: Multiply the ratio from step 4 by your buddy's theoretical time from step 3:
1.075404 X 106.268 seconds = 114.281 seconds

This is another theoretical time you might have run at the distant event. You compare the times in both examples and note quite a discrepancy. Of course, it is all theoretical and while highly accomplished drivers will drive basically the same vis-a-vis each other, someone may have a bad day, the course design variations may favor a certain type of car, etc.

Sorry it is confusing. Will try to clarify later. Good night.

I'm pretty good at math, but that makes my head hurt.

I have your wheelie dealies. I've sent a couple of PM's and an e-mail.

Where should I send them to?

TB

Tony, I got your earlier message, but was afraid to e-mail you because I thought/think I have a virus. My mom sent a warning, something about a teddy bear picture and jdbgmgr.exe she had sent me earlier. Then I lost your e-mail address. For two weeks now, my computer has had problems even going on line, runs slow, and then crashes after a short time. AOL just sent some kind of file that seems to have fixed things for now. Let me wait before e-mailing you or will your system detect and stop any virus? I assume Lance's site has some major protections.

Send it to work. Most viruses don't both the Sun machines I work on

TB

I hope you didn't delete that file - it's a hoax. Trust the virus sites, not a chain letter warning.

That rings a bell. I think that is some M$ Java related program, not a virus.

Of course, it is hard to distinguish most M$ software from a virus

TB

Not to but in on a terrific auto-x discussion but...

jdbgmgr.exe virus hoax

In April 2002 there appeared a hoax message concerning a new virus
that was reportedly discovered in Windows utility JDBGMGR.EXE. The
jdbgmgr is a standard windows component that is found in every windows
installation, it is used as Java debugger manager in Microsoft Java
runtime engine. We checked several versions of this utility from
Windows installations and found nothing malicious in them.

Please ignore this hoax or anything similar warning about jdbgmgr.exe
and don't pass it on.

Instructions for how to restore your system, if you have deleted
jdbgmgr.exe:

1.Download updated Microsoft Virtual Machine from
http://www.microsoft.com/java/vm/dl_vm40.htm

2. Follow the instructions on the Microsoft page for downloading and
updating the Virtual Machine

Sorry about hi-jacking the thread, so I feel a bit responsible for putting it back on the original track.

Perhaps when SVTCole gets some time, he can plug in real numbers from real events and what not.

I'm not some theoretical physicist. I need concrete numbers

I do work well with simile, but I don't think it applies here.

TB

Thanks Matt and Java and PA 3L SVT, I fell for it but when I searched for the thing it was already not there so don't know how it disappeared. AOL sent some kind of file that is making it work much better. I be computer stupido.

Tony, assume you got my PM about the wheel covers, thanks! I figured you would read between the lines in the "theoretical scenario." In the first example the players are me and Mike Allen from SZ 2002 autocross and his Divisional event in Colorado. In example two, the basis for comparison is none other than Mr. Ames, the mighty one, and Mr. Sipe who ain't too shabby either, from my region. Look up results in SCCA.org under Solo II and National Tour (results)and National Championships (archives, not results).

BTW, when I ran against Sipe, we both had street tires, so I don't know if the relationship would be the same if we both had race tires. For those who doubt that race tires are good for 3 seconds on a minute course, please "splain" why the STS Neons with $10K suspensions are still slower than G Stock Neons with race tires!

So I guess, I'm saying I would have been competitive at the Colorado divisional. But when I do similar analysis in the SE Division, I get my butt kicked big time. Us southerners can do more than NASCAR it seems.